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Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The chain of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capability provided through current data. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.

Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and another blackout.

Continuous Dangers

Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a aerial vehicle in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its destination.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and utility failures in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, controversy and profound anxiety – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, no doubt, persist.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame specific actors of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership operates on a assumption familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the near future.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.

These two forces are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a only one week to kill the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.